Record start to 2026 brings prospect of $5,000 gold into view

Jan 12 (Reuters) - Gold and silver's upward run has reignited, with bullion topping $4,600 an ounce for the first time and big brokerages predicting $5,000 as a range of factors intensify, boosting the metal's safe-haven cachet.

Spot gold traded as high as $4,629.94 per ounce on Monday, while silver climbed to a record of $86.22/oz in the same session.

The metal has gained more than 6% in just 13 days of 2026, after breaking through multiple milestones and gaining 64% last year.

Major brokerages expect gold to reach $5,000/oz in 2026, anticipating that safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension, monetary policy easing, ETF inflows and central bank buying will carry forward the momentum from last year.

GEOPOLITICAL AND MACRO DRIVERS

Gold's record high on Monday was fuelled by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal indictment.

There is also broad political uncertainty stemming from the U.S. seizure of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro in a military raid, U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to take control of Greenland and Trump weighing up whether to intervene in the unrest in Iran.

"Real assets come to the fore in the kind of environment we're looking at," said independent precious metals analyst Ross Norman. "The rules are out the window. Precious metal is reflecting all of that."

Gold has also benefited from expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

"Should current geopolitical risks persist and U.S. rate-cutting expectations remain intact, gold may attempt a more sustained breach of $4,600 in the coming weeks," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst.